Moneyball Labs

Chapter 10 of 11

Defensive positioning

Where fielders stand is a trade between outs and runs. Drawing the infield in is the clearest case, and its answer depends on the scoreboard.

The short version

Play in when the runner on third matters more than the hits you will give up: always late and close, rarely early with nobody out.

KBO 2026 season data through Oct 13, 2026

01

The idea

Nine fielders cannot cover a field. Every alignment leaves holes somewhere, and positioning is the choice of where to leave them. Play deep and the single drops in front; play shallow and the double goes over your head. Pinch the lines and the ball finds the gap.

The cleanest example is the drawn-in infield with a runner on third and fewer than two out. Bringing the infielders in lets them cut down the runner at the plate on a ground ball — and lets more ground balls through for hits. It trades runs now for baserunners later, and so, like the bunt, its answer depends on whether one run is the whole game.

Normal
Infield in
No doubles
Three alignments: normal depth; the infield drawn in to cut off the run at the plate; and the late-inning outfield played deep to take away the double. Infielders in amber, outfielders in blue.

02

The math

play in when x < (V(back) − V(held)) ÷ (V(through) − V(held))

With the infield back, the runner on third scores on 52% of infield outs (the simulator's rate); with it in, he is held. x is the share of ground balls the drawn-in infield turns from outs into hits.

Early in a game, with one out, the infield should come in only if it costs fewer than 31% extra hits on ground balls; with nobody out, fewer than 17%. Tied in the bottom of the ninth with one out, the threshold climbs to 52% — exactly the rate at which the runner would have scored with the infield back, because a run and a hit now cost the same thing: the game. The baserunner a drawn-in infield gives up would only matter in a later inning that never comes.

03

Try it

Choose the runners, outs and game, then set how many extra ground balls the drawn-in infield lets through.

Runners
Outs
Game
YardstickInfield backInfield inChangeBreak-even extra hits
Expected runs1.141.07−0.0717%
Chance of a run84.2%70.4%−13.852%
Win value, batting side92.1%85.2%−6.952%

Values are the batting side's, so the fielding side wants them lower. With the infield back, the runner on third scores on 52 percent of infield outs (the simulator's rate); with it in, he is held. Play in when fewer extra grounders get through than the break-even share.

04

This season in the KBO

League BABIP

.317

Errors

713

Errors per team game

0.50

Double plays grounded into

1,045

KBO hitters batted .317 on balls in play this season; fielders made 713 errors, 0.50 a team game. Those are the only fielding facts the public record holds. Where every ball was hit, and where every fielder stood, is tracked inside the clubs and nowhere else.

The KBO has restricted the infield shift since 2024, as MLB did from 2023: two infielders on each side of second base when the pitch is thrown. That rules out the most extreme overloads but leaves a great deal of room — depth, the outfield, and the shading of each infielder within his half.

05

When the conventional wisdom is wrong

  1. 01

    Infield in, first inning

    Early with nobody out, the infield can afford to let through only 17% more ground balls — and a drawn-in infield also loses line drives and high choppers the model does not count. Cutting off one run at the price of baserunners makes the big inning more likely. Early, usually concede the run and take the out.

  2. 02

    No-doubles too early

    Playing the outfield deep turns doubles into singles and some outs into singles. It pays only when the run on first base is the one that beats you — the last inning or two of a close game.

  3. 03

    Holding the runner has a price

    A first baseman holding the runner opens the hole on the right side. With a runner who never steals, or a two-run lead late, playing behind him gives up a base that does not matter to take away a hit that might.

  4. 04

    Positioning is not a hitter's average

    A hitter's batting average on balls in play swings with luck from season to season. Positioning against a hitter should follow where he hits the ball, which the public record does not show.

The KBO publishes no batted-ball data and no fielder positioning, so this chapter cannot measure how many extra hits a drawn-in infield allows — that is why the tool asks you for it. The model also simplifies: with the infield back the batter is always out and the runner scores at the simulator's rate; with it in, the runner always holds on an out. The platform's WAR carries no fielding value beyond position.